Climate Sensitivity and Agriculture Productivity in India: A Crop Wise Analysis

Abstract

This study investigate the impact of climate sensitivity on crop wise productivity by utilizing panel data for time period, 1980-2009 by Cobb-Douglas production function model. The main goal of this study was to analysis the impact of climate sensitivity on food grain and non-food grain productivity. Crop wise per unit land production as a dependent variable, regressed with 11 different socio-economic and climatic factors. To identify the state and time effect in panel, fixed effect regression model was used. Random effect regression model was applied to identify the year and state effect on output. To check the quandary of fixed and random effect regression model, Hausman specification estimation and Breusch-Pagan Lagrange multiplier (LM) was incorporated. Pesaran's test was used to identify the cross sectional independence; and for group-wise heteroskedasticity, Modified Wald test was applied. For serial correlation/autocorrelation, Lagram-Multiplier test (Wooldridge test for autocorrelation) was applied. Linear regression, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs) model was applied to remove the presence of heteroskedasticity and multicollinearity. Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimation model was used to remove the presence of heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, cross-sectional dependence, and multicollinearity in panel data series. Empirical findings shows that climatic factors have a negative and statistically significant impacts on per unit land production of wheat, barley, sorghum, arhar (pigeon pea), maize, sugarcane, cotton and sesamum. Hence, we can conclude that the agricultural productivity in India is sensitive to climate change that is adversely affecting the food grain and non-food grain productivity and thus it may become a serious threat to food security and other sector of the economy. Irrigation is a crucial factor to mitigate the adverse effect of climate sensitivity for rice, wheat, sorghum, arhar, bajra, potato, cotton, groundnut, sesamum, and linseed crops. In case of rice, wheat, barley, maize, gram crops there is still scope for increasing productivity with increased use of fertilizers.