Abstract:
The current study assessed the climate change impacts on land productivity of major
food and non-food grain crops in India. We compiled panel data for 30 years (1980-2009)
using fifteen crops across thirteen agriculture intensive states. The value of production for
each crop is estimated by farm harvest price (at constant prices, 1993-1994). Aggregate
value of production on per hectare land is regressed with different socio-economic and
climatic factors using the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function model. Estimates
based on Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and linear regression and correlated Panels
Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) (Prais-Winsten) estimation indicate that land
productivity decreases with increase in annual average maximum temperature. The study
concludes that Indian policymakers need to increase more irrigation facilities and
fertilizers for cultivation. Land productivity is positively associated with irrigation area,
number of pump set and application of fertilizers on per hectare land. In brief, more
irrigation facilities; recommended use of fertilizer; more investment in infrastructure;
participation of more literate population in agricultural activities; government
expenditure on agricultural and allied sectors, rural development, irrigation and flood
control would be useful to mitigate the negative effect of climate change on agriculture
and improve agricultural productivity (land productivity). Finally, our projected results
based on simulation technique showed that climate change would cause a decline in land
productivity by 48.63 percent by the year 2100 and loss of farmers’ income in India.
